16 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1536
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pikous
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1604
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (99)
Fair odds · Pikous
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H30-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.