16 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1599
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polasek
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1657
FormLLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (140)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H27-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.