16 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1549
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Martinak
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr
ELO 1540
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Martinak stays under total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Martinak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.