17 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Martin Polivka
ELO 1454
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zuzanek
JZ
🇨🇿Jiri Zuzanek
ELO 1527
FormLWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Polivka stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Zuzanek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+73
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.