18 Jul · 17:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1588
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dzida
JD
🇨🇿Jan Dzida
ELO 1709
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (143)
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+121
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+121)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)