19 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Martin Novak
ELO 1568
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Novak
AS
🇨🇿Adam Svoboda
ELO 1487
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🌟Svoboda covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+81
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.