18 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Bajtek
ELO 1491
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Bajtek
LJ
🇨🇿Libor Jemelka
ELO 1412
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🌟Jemelka stays under total as underdog 74% (23)
Fair odds · Bajtek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+79
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.