18 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1378
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Berdych
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1392
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H28-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.