18 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Prosa
ELO 1595
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prosa
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1569
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Prosa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H11-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.