18 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1570
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vedmoch
MK
🇨🇿Milan Kolar
ELO 1547
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolar🌟Kolar covers set handicap as underdog 69% (89)
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H19-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.