18 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MJ
🇨🇿Milan Jasek
ELO 1498
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zurek
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1501
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Jasek stays under total as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Zurek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.