18 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1549
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sopko
JT
🇨🇿Jakub Tazler
ELO 1524
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Sopko stays under total as favourite 62% (29)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.