19 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1607
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cabis
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1578
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (143)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.