19 Jul · 18:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1411
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Berdych
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1305
FormLLLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+106
H2H11-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)