19 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1411
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Berdych
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1354
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H29-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.