19 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Miroslav Vaclavik
ELO 1361
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vaclavik
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1346
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vaclavik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.