19 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1510
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Heczko
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1546
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Heczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (41)
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.