19 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1636
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wawrosz
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1607
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cabis🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (134)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.