19 Jul · 14:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1346
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Smesny
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1240
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (39)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+106
H2H26-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-12)