19 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1548
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Machander
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1557
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machander🌟Byrtus covers set handicap as underdog 64% (64)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.