19 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1557
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Machander
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1546
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heczko🌟Heczko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.