19 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Plachta
ELO 1593
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wawrosz
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1636
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plachta🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (134)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.