19 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tibor Kolenic
ELO 1425
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Horak
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1510
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Kolenic rarely covers set handicap as underdog 37% (59)
Fair odds · Horak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+85
H2H22-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.