19 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1607
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cabis
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Plachta
ELO 1593
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plachta🌟Cabis rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (109)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.