19 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1510
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Byrtus
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1548
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Byrtus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (61)
Fair odds · Byrtus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.