20 Jul · 01:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1556
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chlebecek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1468
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Sobisek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (101)
Fair odds · Chlebecek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+88
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)