20 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1552
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupa
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1587
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szotek🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 70% (43)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.