20 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Regner
JT
🇨🇿Jakub Tazler
ELO 1513
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tazler🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (93)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.