20 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1634
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Grundel
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Plachta
ELO 1566
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plachta🌟Plachta covers set handicap as underdog 64% (22)
Fair odds · Grundel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.