20 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1508
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Just
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1568
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Just
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.