20 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1558
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Machander
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1534
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Martinak🌟Martinak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H9-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.