20 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1529
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Walek
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1480
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Simecek🌟Walek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (52)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.