20 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1541
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heczko
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1529
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Heczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (43)
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.