20 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1308
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Madle
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1371
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
🌟Madle rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (67)
Fair odds · Madle
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.