20 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Josef Medek
ELO 1832
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Medek
JZ
🇨🇿Jan Zajicek
ELO 1805
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Medek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H138-95
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.