20 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1615
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1632
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Simecek🌟Simecek covers set handicap as underdog 62% (64)
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.