20 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1615
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Simecek
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1584
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Huk🌟Simecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (27)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 31% · 3.18· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.