21 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1384
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novotny
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Novotny
ELO 1426
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Novotny goes over total as favourite 64% (14)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.