20 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Motak
ELO 1307
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Foltynek
JF
🇨🇿Jiri Foltynek
ELO 1372
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🌟Motak stays under total as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Foltynek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+65
H2H23-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.