20 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinec
ELO 1368
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martinec
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Motak
ELO 1307
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Motak stays under total as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Martinec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.