20 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1615
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Simecek
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1567
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanera🌟Simecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (27)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.