20 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1576
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1535
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (102)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H47-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.