20 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1534
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Martinak
DU
🇨🇿Daniel Unzeitig
ELO 1503
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Martinak stays under total as favourite 71% (17)
Fair odds · Martinak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.