21 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇨🇿Mihail Trinta
ELO 1554
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trinta
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1487
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Trinta
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+67
H2H14-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.