20 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1508
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hofman
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1535
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (51)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.