20 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1586
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pilch
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1552
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szotek🌟Pilch rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (39)
Fair odds · Pilch
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H15-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.