20 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1586
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Grundel
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1634
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Pilch covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Grundel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.