20 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1656
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dousek
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1580
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (147)
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+76
H2H13-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.