20 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PF
🇨🇿Pavel Fojt
ELO 1468
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousa
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousa
ELO 1499
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Dousa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (66)
Fair odds · Dousa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.