20 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1613
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cabis
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1582
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 72% (138)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H34-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.